Abstract
Climate change represents a major global challenge, with semi-arid regions like the province of Almería being particularly vulnerable. Almería’s dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and tourism, coupled with the absence of perennial rivers, increases its exposure to extreme events including heatwaves, droughts, and extreme precipitation events like storms. This study proposes a semi-quantitative methodology to assess climate risk across different sectors at the municipal level, combining indicators of hazard, exposure and vulnerability within the framework of the IPCC AR6. Exposure and vulnerability indicators were derived from regional, national and European datasets, while hazards were characterized using downscaled Essential Climate Variables. After data collection, the indicators were normalized using a percentile-based approach to ensure their comparison and replicability, especially in data-scarce contexts. The results reveal both sectoral and spatial patterns of risk under three different climate change scenarios, highlighting municipalities with a higher level of exposure, vulnerability and risk. Although the static nature of exposure and vulnerability indicators represents a limitation in future risk quantification, the findings remain valuable for identifying priority areas for targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies. The proposed semi-quantitative risk methodology based on indicators is of great interest and relevance for understanding differences at local scales, as well as for implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions adjusted to the real needs of each municipality.
Abstract
Land use and land cover (LULC) mapping is essential for land-based climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study presents the development of 10-meter high-resolution (HR) land use maps within the RethinkAction H2020 project, aimed at enhancing spatial planning for climate mitigation and adaptation. The methodology integrates multi-source remote sensing data, machine learning classification techniques, and auxiliary datasets to generate accurate and transferable land use classifications across six European bioclimatic regions. The study employs Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 imagery, using supervised classification with Random Forest (RF) and Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA) to enhance accuracy and minimize spectral confusion. This approach resulted in the creation of twelve HR land use maps at two classification levels, covering six case study (CS) areas. A key contribution of this research is the generation of suitability maps, which assess the potential for implementing land-based mitigation and adaptation solutions (LAMS) such as reforestation, water harvesting, and photovoltaic energy development. This study highlights the importance of integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and spatial analysis to support evidence-based decision-making in land use planning, offering a scalable and replicable methodology for detailed LULC classification.
Effective national strategies must be carefully planned in advance to position the land sector as a pivotal contributor to achieving the 2050 climate neutrality target set by the European Union (EU) under the Paris Agreement. Governments define their pathways to achieve the climate goals through the long-term low emission development strategies (LTSs), which describe policies and measures for a just and socially fair transition to low greenhouse gas. This paper explores the natural climate solutions foreseen by the available twenty-five LTSs in the EU to assess each country’s use and potential of land mitigation. Subsequently, it evaluates if better planning is possible to increase carbon storage and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We found that most of the analyzed twenty-five EU countries envisage a wide set of natural climate solutions, demonstrating an understanding of importance of land policies and measures to meet their climate targets. Sustainable forest management, agroforestry, and healthy and sustainable diets emerge as solutions mostly reported and with the largest mitigation potential across the EU, albeit with large variability among countries. However, some countries could further harness the potential for mitigation in the land sector. This study highlights how some countries could improve their LTSs, accounting for their specific land mitigation potential.
Abstract
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are computational tools used to explore energy futures and sustainable transitions. This paper presents the WILIAM-TERRA model, a novel platform for analyzing the interactions between land, food, energy and the environment. WILIAM-TERRA is integrated in the Within Limits Integrated Assessment Model (WILIAM), a new open-source model that has been designed to address several limitations of existing IAMs. WILIAM-TERRA explores the energy transitions, both from the point of view of the sinks (climate change) and from the point of view of the resources (biofuels, forests and solar electricity). Additionally, is focuses on the ecological transition of the food system including dietary changes, sustainable agriculture and regional food exchanges. These features provide a broader scope than the traditional emissions-based approach of most IAMs, enabling a more systemic analysis. Some results of the interaction of diet policies with forest and cropland expansion, of the effect of wood extraction in forests integrity and of the carbon capture in grasslands have been presented. These results represent only a small sample of what can be analysed with WILIAM-TERRA and should be further explored in the future.
Abstract:
Informing and engaging all actors in the land sector, including land-owners and managers, researchers, policy-makers and citizens, on the most effective sustainable land-based solutions and behavioural changes is a key strategy for achieving climate change adaptation and mitigation targets at the global as well as at EU and local level. One requisite to support actors in the land sector is to provide them publicly available, reliable and ready-to-use information related to the implementation of Land-based Adaptation and Mitigation Solutions (LAMS). Here we introduce a LAMS catalogue, a collection of meaningful quantitative and qualitative information on 60 solutions characterised according to a set of specifications (e.g., mitigation and adaptation potential, cost of implementation, suitability factors, synergies and trade-offs, drivers and barriers to the implementation). The catalogue offers a reliable, science-based tool useful for different users’ needs, including valuable references for deriving context-specific quantitative inputs to simulate and evaluate the performance of solutions over time using modelling tools, such as Integrated Assessment Models at any scale.
Abstract:
To explore sustainability strategies in the transport sector in a holistic way, a model dedicated to passenger transportation has been created as a part of the multiregional WILIAM model (Within Limits Integrated Assessment Model). Based on system dynamics, our model increases the diversity of existing passenger transport models within Integrated Assessments Models by offering a detailed representation of the dynamics of the transition for different technologies and transport modes combining technological and behavioural changes. It calculates the energy demand, direct emissions and additional material requirements of the transport sector and can be linked to other submodules of WILIAM to study different feedback loops. Here we report the validation of the offline model and illustrate its usefulness and practical applicability. First, a Baseline transport scenario for Spain was developed and parametrized. This scenario describes the plausible evolution of the Spanish passenger transport system in the absence of ambitious environmental policies but nevertheless achieves a reduction of total direct CO2 emissions from passenger transport from 66 Mt CO2/year in 2022 to 60 Mt CO2/year in 2035, after which emissions remain constant until 2050. Subsequently, following the Avoid-Shift-Improve approach, various behavioural change measures and technological improvements were introduced. The comparison of the different modelled measures reveals that the most effective tested strategy to reduce direct emissions is the transition to battery electric power trains for cars, buses, and motorcycles, however at the cost of the highest material requirements. Further work will be dedicated to the study of the implications of the link of this sub- module with the rest of WILIAM.
Abstract:
A multi-criteria spatial analysis within the context of the Horizon 2020 RethinkAction project is presented. RethinkAction is aligned with the EU Green Deal and the Paris Agreement that focuses on the important role of land use planning in achieving long-term climate mitigation and adaptation goals. To that end, the project employs a cross- sectoral planning decision-making platform to empower citizens and decision-makers in fostering climate action across Europe. Focused on the establishment and maintenance of green urban ecosystems and limiting urban sprawl, methods proposed in this paper employs techniques to develop suitability maps for urban land-based adaptation and mitigation solutions, such as establishment and maintenance of green urban ecosystems (GUE) and limiting the urban sprawl (LUS). The methodology, suitability factors applied, and results for each Land-based Adaptation Measure (LAMS), shedding light on the intricate relationship between urban planning and climate action are described.
Access link: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10640730
Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. We assess the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain, using the FAO AquaCrop model. We focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using the paired t-test, Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, and relative Root Mean Squared Error, we verified AquaCrop’s ability to capture local multi-year trends (9 or more years) using standard barley crop parameters, without local recalibration.
The Mediterranean basin is widely recognized as a climate change hotspot, with climate models projecting increasingly warmer and drier conditions that will impact local ecosystems, communities, and economies. Agriculture will be among the most affected sectors, with harsher conditions for crops’ growth, greater water needs, and lower yields. One of the most resilient crops to limiting and stressful conditions is barley, which is often sown in areas where other crops and cereals would struggle. This work analyzed the impacts of climate change on rainfed barley using the province of Almeria as a case study.
The Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) role is of critical importance in contributing to the ambitious targets set by the European Union (EU) to reduce by 55% net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, and to become carbon neutral by 2050. The EU LULUCF regulation, approved in 2023, sets out binding targets for each individual Member State to be achieved by 2030, totaling 310 MtCO 2e of net removals for the whole EU. However, it remains poorly understood to what extent the EU LULUCF climate target matches with the Member States’ strategies. The alignment between the EU governance and its Member States’ visions for the long-term will determine the achievement of the climate targets. The objective of this study is to understand the LULUCF expected contribution to the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate goals.
