How integrated modelling tools from the RethinkAction project are helping shape smarter climate and land-use strategies across Europe
Climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation are pressing global challenges. But solutions often need to be local. That’s why the RethinkAction project has developed an innovative system dynamics model to help policymakers and stakeholders in general, evaluate the long-term effects of land-based strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation at local and regional levels.
Built and validated by research teams across six European case studies, this model provides a powerful, cross-sectoral view of how land use, energy, and water policies can affect water resources, energy systems, the food supply, and greenhouse gas emissions. From Spanish drylands to Swedish islands, it helps local authorities to understand the trade-offs, synergies and co-benefits of specific policies and strategies in the context of different climates and socio-economic scenarios.
Why System Dynamics?
Traditional models often look at climate, water, land, or energy in isolation. But reality is messier and more complex: forests store carbon but also need water; agriculture feeds us but emits greenhouse gases; renewable energy like solar panels needs land. The RethinkAction model uses system dynamics to simulate these complex cause-and-effect relationships over time.
This approach makes it possible to ask powerful “what if” questions: What if we increased afforestation? What if we increase irrigated cropland areas? What if we invested in solar energy or adopted regenerative farming? The model projects the likely outcomes, not just for emissions, but for water security, food supply, and land competition.
A Tool Built for Local Decision-Making
The strength of this model lies in its local focus. Rather than offering one-size-fits-all solutions, it is designed to reflect the specific social, environmental, and economic contexts of individual regions. At the same time, its flexible structure allows for broader applicability, making it potentially replicable in other regions, provided that sufficient data is available to support robust simulations and future projections.
The model has been applied in several diverse case studies across Europe, each chosen for its distinct sustainability challenges and opportunities:
- Gotland (Sweden): increasing energy self-sufficiency and managing seasonal water stress.
- Tarn-et-Garonne (France): balancing agricultural output with sustainable land and water use.
- Southern Great Plains (Hungary): restoring degraded land and improving water retention.
- Valle d’Aosta (Italy): addressing forest management and climate resilience in mountain ecosystems.
- Almería (Spain): tackling desertification and extreme water scarcity in semi-arid zones.
- Azores (Portugal): managing land pressures from tourism, agriculture, and conservation.
The model is calibrated using local data, including land-use maps, crop yields, and population trends. This enables policymakers to simulate different policy combinations, such as afforestation, irrigation improvements, or land conservation, and assess their long-term impacts with greater confidence.
What the Model Shows
Results from the simulations are already offering valuable insights. For example:
- Solar panel expansion often competes with cropland, requiring careful planning. Regenerative agriculture can boost soil carbon storage and reduce fertilizer needs.
- Diet change policies cut emissions per capita.
- Protecting forests and grasslands enhances carbon sinks but limits land available for other uses.
- Water efficiency policies would help reducing water stress
These insights are not just theoretical. They are feeding directly into the RethinkAction decision-support platform (https://tools.cartif.es/rethinkaction/#/inicio ), which is designed to be used by local planners, stakeholders, and communities.
Future Directions
The model continues to evolve, with ongoing stakeholder engagement ensuring its relevance. The ultimate goal is the creation of a user-friendly, evidence-based platform to guide sustainable land-use decisions at the local level in a changing climate, helping improve both mitigation and adaptation outcomes for local communities. References and further reading:
- RethinkAction project: https://rethinkaction.eu
- System Dynamics Society: https://systemdynamics.org
